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Hawai’i’s Shared Futures By Vision Foresight Strategy

Extracting Lessons from the Economic Crisis

Morning, folks! This morning’s post is really simple enough: we’re working this morning on building some new framework pieces for the upcoming Hawai’i Futures Index.  Cool stuff, but always a challenge to create something that is both intellectually rigorous but also speaks directly to the things about Hawai’i’s future that our decision makers and community leaders really care about.  If it’s important enough to do, then it’s probably challenging!

But on the planning front, we can already start to extract some planning and strategy lessons from the current financial crisis and economic downturn.  While the following is not actually a new idea for strategic thinking, it’s one of those ideas that gets completely lost during our long periods of economic expansion.

Basically, let’s look at the first of what we call Standing Scenarios: very simple, almost generic yet challenging situations that we use on a regular basis to “wind tunnel” an organization, its assumptions, and its strategy.  We also use Standing Scenarios to remind clients of basic uncertainty and bring their attention back to a longer-term view of their actions and assumptions.

So, the current crisis gives us the Sudden Falloff scenario: sales/revenue falls off unexpectedly by 25% in one year, and then by a further 50% the second year.  Simple, brutal.  The first question is: what does this mean for you, what are your reactions to it, and what are your priorities?  The second question is: what are all of the plausible (not probable, but plausible) series of events and interactions out there in the world that could have produced this?

When was the last time your organization played some of these scenarios?

Think about tomorrow.

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Filed under: foresight, Planning, scenarios, Strategy, Summit,

Hawai’i Futures and Strategy

Aloha kakahiaka.  It’s a wonderful Monday morning (spring break!), and despite the rather long task list for today, we have some cool work to do today.  We’re meeting with some charter school folks today, following up on a wonderful future of education discussion we facilitated in January, and possible people who can contribute some exciting ideas to this year’s Summit.  We’re also polishing a presentation for another client for a seminar next month, and that has helped us get back to organizing some of the company’s original products, such as scenarios about Hawai’i’s future and more artful and more useful ways to approach planning and strategy.  And speaking of which, we’re still working on the future of nonprofits project, and the base scenario should shape up nicely this week.  For those interested, we’re going to be talking about the things nonprofits in Hawai’i need to fix in order to better fulfill their mission on one of the forums on SummitNet.

Think about tomorrow.

Filed under: Hawai'i, Nonprofit, scenarios, Strategy, Summit

Good strategy sessions

Aloha kakahiaka, everyone.  We spent the last couple of days running a strategy session for a client and had the opportunity to help with what turned out to be some very good conversations about their purpose, customers, and unique approach to creating value.  It was a very productive and useful two days and today we’ll be drafting up the first iteration of the strategy map.  It is often interesting to help with these conversations because it can really drive home that, quite frankly, most organizations are so focused on meeting crises and fighting fires that they themselves don’t have many opportunities to sketch a bigger picture for each other and reconnect with each other on basic beliefs, priorities, and ideas for shaping positive change across the organization.

And just as a tidbit, I came across the following document that comes recommended as an excellent introduction and overview of the current financial crisis.

Filed under: Economics, Strategy, ,

Hawai’i: the Reboot

2 days. 200 innovators. A new future for Hawai'i.


The Hawai'i Futures Summit 2009 October 16 and 17, 2009


SummitNet

Vision Foresight Strategy

We work with organizations to anticipate strategic change and to craft the strategies that will shape their desired futures.


To learn more about how we can help you, visit www.kikilo.biz

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